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Thursday, July 23, 2009

WORLD FOREX: Euro Dips On Day Vs Dollar, But Up Vs Yen

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro recently moved down on the day versus the dollar, losing overnight advances.
The euro came under pressure in a cross-market reaction from a spike in the dollar against the Swiss franc, and receded further as crude oil futures dropped. The move was initially tipped off by dip in S&P stock futures, although that has since turned around.
The euro declined to an intraday low of $1.4187.
Nevertheless, risk appetite is still apparent in the safe-haven yen's rivals, with both the dollar and euro higher.
Better-than-expected weekly U.S. jobless claims data Thursday morning helped.
Thursday morning in New York, the euro was at $1.4195 from $1.4211 late Wednesday, and the dollar was at Y94.46 from Y93.54, according to EBS. The euro was at Y134.09 from Y132.96. The U.K. pound was at $1.6475 from $1.6463, and the dollar was at CHF1.0735 from CHF1.0662.
Equities had slipped in pre-market trading after UPS said it is cautious on demand picking up.
"UPS is a bellwether for the U.S. economy in terms of consumer spending and corporate spending," said Jacob Oubina, a currency strategist at Forex.com.
Stocks' turnaround into the morning has boosted the dollar against the yen to a fresh session high of Y94.64.
Meanwhile, the dollar may have received support against the euro on some support against the Swiss franc. However, analysts are unsure if this was the Swiss National Bank intervening in the currency market again to keep its unit lower. The SNB has been doing this intermittently since March. More likely, the move was related to a large bank order that other traders piggy-backed on, said one strategist.
The franc's losses against the dollar also saw declines against the euro.
Meanwhile, the yen is under broad pressure on talk of higher demand in Japan of foreign-denominated investment trusts.
"Demand out of Japan for the large Toshin issues ($30 billion estimated to have been issued this week and denominated in a number of currencies including the Australian, South African and Brazilian real) may have contributed to the weaker yen," said analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman. "The South African rand and the Australian dollar are amongst the top performers [Thursday] against the yen."
Robert Lynch, a currency strategist at HSBC, said if the dollar breaks Y94.80 to Y95.0, it could give the greenback momentum to rise as high as Y96.0.
This momentum will largely be driven by U.S. stock performance Thursday, which has been directing currencies for months as an indicator of risk appetite.
Meanwhile, the U.K. pound is higher after stronger-than-expected retail sales overnight.
The commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars, remain near intraday highs against the greenback, after data showed Japan's exports improved again and second-quarter earnings keep beating expectations.
But these currencies are off their highest levels of the week.
"Talk of Reserve Bank of Australia interest to sell the Aussie and caution ahead of [Thursday's] Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Review are limiting gains," said analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The RBA recently reported that it sold a record amount of Australian dollars in the spot exchange market in June to manage its portfolio.
BOC releases its report at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Separately, New Zealand Finance Minister Bill English said Thursday that a pickup in the housing market and the recent rise of the New Zealand dollar were the main risks to New Zealand's economic recovery

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